Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints37
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds8
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–113
- Q416.1Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound99–113
- Q420.0Jett Howard misses 26-foot three point jumper99–113
- Q427.0Walker Kessler makes free throw 2 of 299–113
- Q427.0Jazz offensive team rebound99–112
- Q427.0Walker Kessler misses free throw 1 of 299–112
- Q427.0Paolo Banchero shooting foul99–112
- Q428.1Walker Kessler offensive rebound99–112
- Q431.1Jordan Clarkson misses 25-foot three point jumper99–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:41Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)ORL 5 – 12 UTAH · UTAH 47% → 54% +7UTAH 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q16:24Anthony Black makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 11 – 14 UTAH · ORL 48% → 54% +7ORL 48% → 54%+7 pts
- Q211:06Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)ORL 24 – 34 UTAH · UTAH 57% → 64% +7UTAH 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q29:52Jett Howard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)ORL 29 – 37 UTAH · ORL 33% → 40% +7ORL 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q39:44Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)ORL 51 – 64 UTAH · UTAH 72% → 79% +7UTAH 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML ORL -180 / UTAH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 52.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -161
- UTAH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.5 – 107.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +4 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +18 Elo | ORL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.8 | Points scored | 111.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Points allowed | 118.928th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −7.828th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 109.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.1 | Defense rating | 117.229th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 3–1730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–24 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–11 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 20–29 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–1 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.