Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints36
- Anthony EdwardsAssists11
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints23
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–113
- Q422.1Luka Garza makes free throw 2 of 2138–113
- Q422.1Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 2137–113
- Q422.1Keyonte George shooting foul136–113
- Q438.1Isaiah Collier makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot136–113
- Q449.0Leonard Miller out of bounds bad pass turnover136–111
- Q452.1Leonard Miller defensive rebound136–111
- Q455.1John Collins misses 18-foot step back jumpshot136–111
- Q41:06Leonard Miller makes free throw 2 of 2136–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:04Naz Reid makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 25 – 31 UTAH · MIN 45% → 52% +7MIN 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q211:21Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 30 – 33 UTAH · MIN 51% → 58% +7MIN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q210:54John Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Drew Eubanks assists)MIN 30 – 36 UTAH · UTAH 42% → 49% +7UTAH 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q29:45Naz Reid makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 35 – 36 UTAH · MIN 55% → 63% +7MIN 55% → 63%+7 pts
- Q311:48Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 60 – 54 UTAH · MIN 71% → 78% +7MIN 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML MIN -240 / UTAH +195
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.5%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -208
- UTAH +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.0 – 109.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | +8 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +143 Elo | MIN 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 111.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 118.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −7.428th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 109.422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.7 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 3–1630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–28 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–0 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.