San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points31
- Ja MorantAssists11
- Zach EdeyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–128
- Q417.1Blake Wesley makes two point shot109–128
- Q422.1GG Jackson makes dunk (Yuki Kawamura assists)107–128
- Q425.1Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound107–126
- Q427.1David Duke Jr. misses two point shot107–126
- Q435.1David Duke Jr. defensive rebound107–126
- Q437.1GG Jackson misses driving floating jump shot107–126
- Q449.1Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 2107–126
- Q449.1Jay Huff enters the game for Zach Edey106–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:50Ja Morant makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Santi Aldama assists)SA 15 – 11 MEM · MEM 43% → 50% +7MEM 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q16:17Ja Morant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)SA 15 – 14 MEM · MEM 50% → 56% +7MEM 50% → 56%+7 pts
- Q12:21Chris Paul makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 24 – 25 MEM · SA 33% → 40% +7SA 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q11:22GG Jackson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)SA 26 – 28 MEM · MEM 56% → 63% +7MEM 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q159.0Santi Aldama makes 27-foot three point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)SA 26 – 31 MEM · MEM 63% → 69% +7MEM 63% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML SA +135 / MEM -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 64.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -145
- SA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 118.5 – 123.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +40 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +103 Elo | MEM 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 123.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 115.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 108.56th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.8 | Pace | 106.71st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 20–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 32–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 22–11 |
| Underdog | 15–16 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–5 MEM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.