Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints30
- Bam AdebayoAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints19
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Charles BasseyRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–103
- Q40.0(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)105–103
- Q40.1Bam Adebayo makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)105–103
- Q43.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Kel'el Ware103–103
- Q43.0Heat Full timeout103–103
- Q43.0Kel'el Ware defensive rebound103–103
- Q45.0Chris Paul misses 19-foot pullup jump shot103–103
- Q423.1Chris Paul defensive rebound103–103
- Q429.1Tyler Herro misses driving floating jump shot103–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:15Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)MIA 96 – 99 SA · SA 48% → 66% +18SA 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q42:56Bam Adebayo makes 2-foot two point shot (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 99 – 99 SA · MIA 35% → 52% +16MIA 35% → 52%+16 pts
- Q41:09Kel'el Ware makes tip shotMIA 103 – 101 SA · MIA 51% → 76% +25MIA 51% → 76%+25 pts
- Q459.0Chris Paul makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 103 – 103 SA · SA 23% → 49% +26SA 23% → 49%+26 pts
- Q40.1Bam Adebayo makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 105 – 103 SA · MIA 50% → 100% +50MIA 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML MIA -150 / SA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- SA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.0 – 110.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | −38 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +44 Elo | MIA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 112.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 113.919th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.218th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 111.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.417th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 13–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–27 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 7–13 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.