Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints30
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–144
- Q44.0Andre Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot118–144
- Q46.0Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound116–144
- Q49.1Ryan Rollins misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot116–144
- Q426.1shot clock turnover116–144
- Q451.0Malaki Branham defensive rebound116–144
- Q451.0Ryan Rollins misses 25-foot three point jumper116–144
- Q41:00Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point shot (Blake Wesley assists)116–144
- Q41:01Malaki Branham defensive rebound116–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:27Stephon Castle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)MIL 74 – 78 SA · SA 49% → 58% +9SA 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q39:38Damian Lillard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 79 – 78 SA · MIL 48% → 57% +9MIL 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:27Stephon Castle makes 24-foot three pointerMIL 79 – 81 SA · SA 43% → 52% +9SA 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q39:11Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Chris Paul assists)MIL 79 – 84 SA · SA 52% → 61% +9SA 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q37:15Victor Wembanyama makes 28-foot three point shotMIL 85 – 91 SA · SA 56% → 65% +9SA 56% → 65%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -2.5
- ML MIL -145 / SA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- SA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 119.5 – 117.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +21 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MIL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 112.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 113.819th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −1.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 110.717th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 112.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 19th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 12–1118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–24 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.