LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints27
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds22
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints23
- Harrison BarnesAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–116
- Q414.1Stephon Castle makes 1-foot driving dunk (Chris Paul assists)128–116
- Q422.0Terance Mann lost ball turnover (Stephon Castle steals)128–114
- Q444.1Stephon Castle makes two point shot128–114
- Q444.1Stephon Castle offensive rebound128–112
- Q446.0Chris Paul misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot128–112
- Q453.1Kobe Brown makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Jordan Miller assists)128–112
- Q41:09Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2126–112
- Q41:09Kobe Brown enters the game for Kawhi Leonard126–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:51Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)LAC 102 – 99 SA · SA 18% → 30% +13SA 18% → 30%+13 pts
- Q46:06Devin Vassell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)LAC 104 – 102 SA · SA 20% → 35% +14SA 20% → 35%+14 pts
- Q45:38Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 104 – 105 SA · SA 35% → 52% +18SA 35% → 52%+18 pts
- Q45:02Devin Vassell makes 1-foot two point shotLAC 106 – 107 SA · SA 40% → 53% +13SA 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q44:39Ivica Zubac makes 2-foot two point shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 108 – 107 SA · LAC 47% → 60% +13LAC 47% → 60%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML LAC -170 / SA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 62.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -154
- SA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.0 – 109.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +21 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +88 Elo | LAC 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Points scored | 112.015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 113.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −1.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 110.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 112.018th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 12–1015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–17 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–5 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders | 17–29 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–1 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.