Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Luke KennardAssists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds11
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints28
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–143
- Q422.0Jake LaRavia makes driving layup (Jay Huff assists)106–143
- Q425.0Jay Huff offensive rebound104–143
- Q427.1GG Jackson misses driving layup104–143
- Q443.1Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 2 of 2104–143
- Q443.1Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 1 of 2104–142
- Q443.1Scotty Pippen Jr. shooting foul104–141
- Q41:05Jericho Sims defensive rebound104–141
- Q41:05Jay Huff misses 25-foot three point jumper104–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:48Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)MEM 2 – 5 NY · NY 60% → 66% +6NY 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q12:18Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 23 – 28 NY · MEM 24% → 30% +6MEM 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q25:44Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 40 – 46 NY · MEM 21% → 27% +6MEM 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q25:17OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MEM 40 – 49 NY · NY 73% → 79% +6NY 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q21:00OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MEM 52 – 60 NY · NY 71% → 78% +7NY 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML MEM +140 / NY -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- NY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NY: Elo 53.9%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -151
- MEM +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 119.0 – 123.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | +28 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +27 Elo | NY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.7 | Points scored | 117.25th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 110.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.7 | Margin | +6.35th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 118.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 112.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 15–88th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–15 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–10 | 21–20 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 30–16 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.