Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints31
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints33
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Josh HartRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–143
- Q422.1Kevin Huerter bad pass (Matt Ryan steals)120–143
- Q428.0Kevin Huerter defensive rebound120–143
- Q430.0Miles McBride misses 15-foot pullup jump shot120–143
- Q437.1Jericho Sims offensive rebound120–143
- Q440.1Tyler Kolek misses two point shot120–143
- Q447.2Kevin Huerter lost ball turnover (Jacob Toppin steals)120–143
- Q41:09Miles McBride makes 13-foot pullup jump shot120–143
- Q41:30Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)120–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:13Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 65 – 67 NY · SAC 27% → 35% +8SAC 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q37:57DeMar DeRozan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 80 – 86 NY · SAC 17% → 24% +7SAC 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q37:05Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 84 – 88 NY · SAC 22% → 29% +8SAC 22% → 29%+8 pts
- Q35:43Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)SAC 88 – 93 NY · NY 65% → 74% +9NY 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q35:05Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 92 – 95 NY · SAC 24% → 32% +9SAC 24% → 32%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML SAC +160 / NY -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NY: Elo 61.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -170
- SAC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.5 – 119.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +27 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +82 Elo | NY 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 110.79th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.117th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 14–89th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–26 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 20–20 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.