Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points37
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists10
- Zach EdeyRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–119
- Q415.1Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound132–119
- Q418.1Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot132–119
- Q429.1Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)132–119
- Q441.1Brandon Clarke defensive rebound129–119
- Q445.0Santi Aldama blocks Brook Lopez 's 2-foot layup129–119
- Q41:00Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2129–119
- Q41:00Brandon Clarke enters the game for Luke Kennard128–119
- Q41:00Taurean Prince enters the game for Khris Middleton128–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:46Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 105 – 103 MIL · MEM 41% → 55% +14MEM 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q48:38Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 108 – 103 MIL · MEM 55% → 69% +14MEM 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q46:28Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 27-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)MEM 112 – 112 MIL · MIL 37% → 54% +17MIL 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q45:17Desmond Bane makes 30-foot three point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 119 – 112 MIL · MEM 71% → 84% +14MEM 71% → 84%+14 pts
- Q42:25Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)MEM 123 – 119 MIL · MIL 6% → 19% +13MIL 6% → 19%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -3.5
- ML MEM +140 / MIL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 50.6%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -151
- MEM +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 122.0 – 125.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +18 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +4 Elo | MIL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.2 | Points scored | 114.212th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 111.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.5 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 113.111th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 110.49th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 16–75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–17 | 22–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–11 | 17–19 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 32–16 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–0 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.