Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints25
- Jalen GreenAssists5
- Tari EasonRebounds12
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints24
- Desmond BaneAssists6
- Desmond BaneRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–120
- Q42.2Rockets offensive team rebound119–120
- Q42.2Fred VanVleet misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot119–120
- Q48.1Jalen Green enters the game for Steven Adams119–120
- Q48.1Rockets Full timeout119–120
- Q48.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2119–120
- Q48.1Brandon Clarke enters the game for Luke Kennard119–119
- Q48.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2119–119
- Q48.1Steven Adams enters the game for Dillon Brooks119–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:49Desmond Bane makes two point shotHOU 115 – 114 MEM · MEM 28% → 44% +16MEM 28% → 44%+16 pts
- Q42:21Tari Eason makes tip shotHOU 117 – 114 MEM · HOU 57% → 74% +17HOU 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q41:11Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotHOU 119 – 118 MEM · MEM 17% → 39% +22MEM 17% → 39%+22 pts
- Q48.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2HOU 119 – 119 MEM · MEM 17% → 51% +34MEM 17% → 51%+34 pts
- Q48.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2HOU 119 – 120 MEM · MEM 51% → 84% +33MEM 51% → 84%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML HOU +145 / MEM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1
- MEM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 53.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MEM -156
- HOU +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.5 – 119.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +29 | HOU: Missing Alperen Sengun −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +26 Elo | MEM 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 123.31st of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.7 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 115.45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.4 | Defense rating | 108.26th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 106.81st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–6 | Road vs home | 19–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−8 Elo- Alperen Sengun left calf contusion−40 Elo
Grizzlies
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–19 | 31–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–14 | 22–10 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 31–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–1 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.