Indiana Pacers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Clippers- James HardenPoints22
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–112
- Q42.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound119–112
- Q45.1Norman Powell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot119–112
- Q49.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2119–112
- Q49.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2118–112
- Q49.0Kris Dunn personal take foul117–112
- Q418.0Derrick Jones Jr. makes 2-foot driving dunk (James Harden assists)117–112
- Q421.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2117–110
- Q421.1Pacers offensive team rebound116–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:06James Harden makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 84 – 86 LAC · LAC 54% → 66% +12LAC 54% → 66%+12 pts
- Q44:28Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)IND 98 – 103 LAC · LAC 68% → 83% +16LAC 68% → 83%+16 pts
- Q43:11Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 103 – 105 LAC · IND 13% → 31% +17IND 13% → 31%+17 pts
- Q42:44Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 106 – 105 LAC · IND 30% → 55% +25IND 30% → 55%+25 pts
- Q42:17Tyrese Haliburton makes two point shotIND 108 – 105 LAC · IND 56% → 74% +17IND 56% → 74%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML IND +175 / LAC -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 55.0%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -186
- IND +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.5 – 118.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +48 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +35 Elo | LAC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 110.023rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +2.69th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 110.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 107.64th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 17–99th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–25 | 30–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 16–8 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 20–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.