LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints25
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints20
- RJ BarrettAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–115
- Q417.1shot clock turnover108–115
- Q441.1James Harden makes two point shot108–115
- Q451.1Gradey Dick makes alley oop dunk shot (Scottie Barnes assists)106–115
- Q41:00Kevin Porter Jr. makes driving layup106–113
- Q41:06Ja'Kobe Walter makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)104–113
- Q41:23Ivica Zubac makes 7-foot two point shot (Nicolas Batum assists)104–111
- Q41:26Clippers Full timeout102–111
- Q41:26shot clock turnover102–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:00James Harden makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 56 – 55 TOR · LAC 56% → 64% +8LAC 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q23.1Amir Coffey makes 30-foot three pointer (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 61 – 61 TOR · LAC 52% → 61% +9LAC 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q310:54Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)LAC 61 – 64 TOR · TOR 39% → 48% +9TOR 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q32:28Nicolas Batum makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 72 – 80 TOR · LAC 20% → 29% +9LAC 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q31:28Ja'Kobe Walter makes 28-foot three pointerLAC 74 – 86 TOR · TOR 75% → 84% +8TOR 75% → 84%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML LAC -210 / TOR +175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- LAC: Elo 64.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -186
- TOR +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.5 – 107.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +46 | LAC: Missing Norman Powell −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +103 Elo | LAC 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.4 | Points scored | 111.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 116.525th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −5.425th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 108.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.56th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 11–1423rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+36 Elo- Norman Powell sore right hip−27 Elo
Raptors
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–18 | 29–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 19–29 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–0 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.