New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints31
- Dejounte MurrayAssists8
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds7
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints21
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–113
- Q45.0Zion Williamson makes two point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)104–113
- Q46.0Pelicans offensive team rebound102–113
- Q46.1CJ McCollum misses driving floating jump shot102–113
- Q415.2Bruce Brown makes free throw 2 of 2102–113
- Q415.2Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2102–112
- Q415.2Trey Murphy III personal take foul102–111
- Q419.1CJ McCollum makes 2-foot two point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)102–111
- Q427.1Jakob Poeltl makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)100–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:13Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 68 – 70 TOR · NO 32% → 43% +11NO 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q341.1Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 73 – 72 TOR · NO 43% → 55% +12NO 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q411:05Zion Williamson makes two point shotNO 77 – 76 TOR · NO 46% → 55% +9NO 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q410:56Scottie Barnes makes 5-foot two point shotNO 77 – 78 TOR · TOR 45% → 54% +9TOR 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q48:41Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerNO 79 – 87 TOR · TOR 73% → 83% +11TOR 73% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -0.5
- ML NO -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- NO 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NO: Elo 44.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.0 – 116.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −7 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +41 Elo | TOR 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.2 | Points scored | 111.318th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 117.425th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.6 | Margin | −6.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 109.023rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 115.027th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–18 | Road vs home | 10–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–27 | 27–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 14–19 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.