New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints28
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds11
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Moussa DiabateRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–123
- Q412.1shot clock turnover92–123
- Q437.1Karlo Matkovic lost ball turnover (Isaiah Wong steals)92–123
- Q448.0Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound92–123
- Q451.1DaQuan Jeffries misses 25-foot three point jumper92–123
- Q41:09Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 2 of 292–123
- Q41:09Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 1 of 291–123
- Q41:09Moussa Diabate shooting foul90–123
- Q41:22Nick Smith Jr. makes three point jumper (DaQuan Jeffries assists)90–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:20Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 21 – 19 CHA · NO 52% → 58% +7NO 52% → 58%+7 pts
- Q11:59Seth Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)NO 21 – 22 CHA · CHA 42% → 49% +7CHA 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q11:31DaQuan Jeffries makes 26-foot three point shot (Miles Bridges assists)NO 21 – 25 CHA · CHA 49% → 56% +7CHA 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q142.1Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)NO 23 – 28 CHA · CHA 51% → 58% +7CHA 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q111.1Vasilije Micic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 23 – 31 CHA · CHA 58% → 65% +7CHA 58% → 65%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML NO -130 / CHA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- NO 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NO: Elo 54.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -119
- CHA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.5 – 114.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1338 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | +16 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +29 Elo | NO 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.6 | Points scored | 107.228th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 112.713th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −5.624th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 106.428th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 111.915th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 7–1426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–26 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 14–19 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 16–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.