LA Clippers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints27
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints27
- Miles BridgesAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–104
- Q42.1shot clock turnover112–104
- Q422.2Derrick Jones Jr. vs. Moussa Diabate (Kobe Brown gains possession)112–104
- Q428.1(00:28.4) [Hornets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Hornets] retain their timeout112–104
- Q428.1Hornets Coach's Challenge112–104
- Q433.1KJ Simpson makes 27-foot three pointer (Vasilije Micic assists)112–104
- Q438.1Jordan Miller enters the game for Norman Powell112–101
- Q438.1Kobe Brown enters the game for James Harden112–101
- Q438.1Amir Coffey personal foul112–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:41Vasilije Micic makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 93 – 90 CHA · CHA 12% → 21% +9CHA 12% → 21%+9 pts
- Q47:06Kevin Porter Jr. makes dunkLAC 97 – 93 CHA · LAC 75% → 83% +8LAC 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q46:44Miles Bridges makes driving layupLAC 97 – 95 CHA · CHA 17% → 25% +8CHA 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q46:25Norman Powell makes driving layup (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)LAC 99 – 95 CHA · LAC 75% → 83% +8LAC 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q46:06James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 102 – 95 CHA · LAC 83% → 92% +9LAC 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -13.5
- ML LAC -900 / CHA +550
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -10
- LAC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 83.5%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -585
- CHA +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.0 – 97.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1336 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +72 | −33 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +282 Elo | LAC 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 84.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.3 | Points scored | 107.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.1 | Points allowed | 112.013th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 106.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 111.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 8–1626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–17 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–5 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–29 | 16–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.