Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints18
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints23
- Vasilije MicicAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–83
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–83
- Q43.0shot clock turnover104–83
- Q424.2Nic Claxton defensive rebound104–83
- Q427.0KJ Simpson misses alley oop layup104–83
- Q432.1Reece Beekman makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot104–83
- Q455.1Moussa Diabate bad pass (Reece Beekman steals)102–83
- Q459.0Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound102–83
- Q41:02Reece Beekman misses driving layup102–83
- Q41:23Moussa Diabate makes 6-foot two point shot (Vasilije Micic assists)102–83
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:40Vasilije Micic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)BKN 11 – 7 CHA · CHA 37% → 43% +6CHA 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q15:22Tosan Evbuomwan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 14 – 7 CHA · BKN 57% → 63% +6BKN 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q14:28Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three pointer (KJ Simpson assists)BKN 16 – 12 CHA · CHA 36% → 43% +7CHA 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q12:42Seth Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)BKN 20 – 15 CHA · CHA 34% → 40% +7CHA 34% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:38Isaiah Wong makes three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)BKN 36 – 27 CHA · CHA 23% → 29% +6CHA 23% → 29%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -1.5
- ML BKN +100 / CHA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2
- CHA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 58.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -109
- BKN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 102.0 – 103.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 205.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −2 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +63 Elo | CHA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.5 | Points scored | 107.528th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 112.214th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.9 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 106.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 111.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 8–1526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−40 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−22 Elo
Hornets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–23 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 22–20 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 16–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–2 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.