Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints30
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds22
Nets- D'Angelo RussellPoints19
- Jalen WilsonAssists4
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–96
- Q44.2shot clock turnover110–96
- Q430.0Tyrese Martin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)110–96
- Q435.1Tyrese Martin offensive rebound110–93
- Q437.1Keon Johnson misses 27-foot three point jumper110–93
- Q439.1Reece Beekman offensive rebound110–93
- Q444.1Jalen Wilson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–93
- Q447.1Alex Len enters the game for Domantas Sabonis110–93
- Q447.1Malik Monk personal foul110–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:12Keon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)SAC 51 – 60 BKN · BKN 41% → 50% +9BKN 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q39:25De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 56 – 60 BKN · SAC 55% → 64% +9SAC 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q36:25D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)SAC 65 – 67 BKN · BKN 24% → 33% +8BKN 24% → 33%+8 pts
- Q31:45Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 80 – 76 BKN · SAC 74% → 82% +9SAC 74% → 82%+9 pts
- Q48:49Keon Ellis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 89 – 85 BKN · SAC 71% → 82% +11SAC 71% → 82%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -12.5
- ML SAC -800 / BKN +500
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -8
- SAC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- SAC: Elo 77.8%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -533
- BKN +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 120.5 – 108.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −75 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Trendon Watford −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +218 Elo | SAC 77.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 84.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 83.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 105.729th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 113.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −7.728th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 107.127th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 5–1528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−75 Elo- Trendon Watford left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–27 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.