Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints42
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds23
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- Nick Smith Jr.Assists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–107
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound112–107
- Q40.0Miles Bridges misses 26-foot three point jumper112–107
- Q48.0Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2112–107
- Q48.0Mark Williams enters the game for Moussa Diabate111–107
- Q48.0Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2111–107
- Q48.0Moussa Diabate personal foul110–107
- Q410.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for Mark Williams110–107
- Q410.1Lakers Full timeout110–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:34LeBron James makes 12-foot two point shotLAL 88 – 84 CHA · LAL 66% → 73% +8LAL 66% → 73%+8 pts
- Q410:21Nick Smith Jr. makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Mark Williams assists)LAL 88 – 86 CHA · CHA 26% → 34% +8CHA 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q410:06Jaxson Hayes makes alley oop layup (LeBron James assists)LAL 90 – 86 CHA · LAL 66% → 74% +8LAL 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q49:21Miles Bridges makes 1-foot dunk (Isaiah Wong assists)LAL 91 – 88 CHA · CHA 22% → 30% +8CHA 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q48:40Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (LeBron James assists)LAL 93 – 88 CHA · LAL 70% → 78% +8LAL 70% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML LAL -215 / CHA +175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 57.5%, market 65.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -188
- CHA +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.0 – 109.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +66 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +52 Elo | LAL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 65.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 107.528th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 112.212th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 106.828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.414th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 8–1424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–21 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 16–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.