Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints25
- Ayo DosunmuAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints20
- Jakob PoeltlAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–106
- Q416.0Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound122–106
- Q419.1Gradey Dick misses 23-foot three point jumper122–106
- Q427.0Dalen Terry makes alley oop layup (Josh Giddey assists)122–106
- Q437.0Ja'Kobe Walter makes two point shot (Garrett Temple assists)120–106
- Q439.1Josh Giddey bad pass (Orlando Robinson steals)120–104
- Q453.1Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Garrett Temple assists)120–104
- Q455.1Matas Buzelis enters the game for Coby White120–101
- Q41:13Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2120–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:21RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)CHI 55 – 53 TOR · TOR 42% → 51% +9TOR 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q311:00Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 58 – 53 TOR · CHI 49% → 58% +9CHI 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q38:48Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 61 – 56 TOR · CHI 50% → 59% +9CHI 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q36:59Coby White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 66 – 64 TOR · CHI 40% → 50% +10CHI 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q34:47Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 75 – 66 TOR · CHI 65% → 74% +9CHI 65% → 74%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML CHI +140 / TOR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4.5
- TOR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 68.1%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -151
- CHI +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.5 – 119.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +36 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +132 Elo | TOR 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 111.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 116.425th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.7 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 108.824th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.9 | Pace | 101.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 11–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–25 | 29–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 17–17 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 22–26 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.