Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Patrick WilliamsPoints16
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Jalen SmithRebounds11
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints34
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–122
- Q49.0shot clock turnover100–122
- Q433.0Julian Phillips makes 12-foot two point shot (Jevon Carter assists)100–122
- Q449.1Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)98–122
- Q41:07Jordan Walsh defensive rebound98–119
- Q41:10Julian Phillips misses 23-foot three point jumper98–119
- Q41:25Matas Buzelis defensive rebound98–119
- Q41:27Payton Pritchard misses 11-foot two point shot98–119
- Q41:43Dalen Terry enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu98–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:06Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 18 – 22 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +3BOS 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q13:55Matas Buzelis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)CHI 21 – 22 BOS · CHI 9% → 12% +3CHI 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q211:06Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)CHI 23 – 29 BOS · BOS 89% → 92% +3BOS 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q210:22Jalen Smith makes 28-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)CHI 28 – 31 BOS · CHI 8% → 11% +3CHI 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q210:06Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)CHI 28 – 34 BOS · BOS 89% → 92% +3BOS 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -14.5
- ML CHI +800 / BOS -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10.5
- BOS 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 84.2%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -847
- CHI +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 108.0 – 122.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +11 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +290 Elo | BOS 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 90.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 90.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 117.25th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 108.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.3 | Margin | +8.73rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 117.03rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 108.36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.0 | Pace | 99.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 15–912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–24 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 19–26 |
| Underdog | 17–16 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 21–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–5 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.