Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds12
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–97
- Q415.0shot clock turnover109–97
- Q439.0Ayo Dosunmu steps out of bounds turnover109–97
- Q447.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound109–97
- Q451.0Guerschon Yabusele misses 24-foot three point jumper109–97
- Q41:09Eric Gordon defensive rebound109–97
- Q41:11Ayo Dosunmu misses driving layup109–97
- Q41:21Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound109–97
- Q41:23Justin Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2109–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:50Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point shot (Lonzo Ball assists)PHI 86 – 88 CHI · CHI 49% → 63% +14CHI 49% → 63%+14 pts
- Q48:03Reggie Jackson makes 24-foot three pointerPHI 89 – 88 CHI · PHI 37% → 52% +15PHI 37% → 52%+15 pts
- Q45:23Lonzo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)PHI 93 – 91 CHI · CHI 24% → 40% +16CHI 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q43:55Nikola Vucevic makes 7-foot two point shot (Lonzo Ball assists)PHI 95 – 93 CHI · CHI 25% → 38% +13CHI 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q43:42Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 98 – 93 CHI · PHI 63% → 81% +19PHI 63% → 81%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML PHI +130 / CHI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 59.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.0 – 117.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −44 | +7 | PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | CHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +69 Elo | CHI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 116.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 120.229th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.7 | Margin | −3.422nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 111.016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 105.13rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–14 | Road vs home | 8–1526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−44 Elo- Andre Drummond not with team−6 Elo
Bulls
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–28 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 9–18 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders | 24–19 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.