Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints33
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints21
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–129
- Q416.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound121–129
- Q420.0Michael Porter Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper121–129
- Q429.1Lonzo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2121–129
- Q429.1Lonzo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2121–128
- Q429.1Michael Porter Jr. personal take foul121–127
- Q436.0Michael Porter Jr. personal foul121–127
- Q453.1Lonzo Ball defensive rebound121–127
- Q454.1Russell Westbrook misses tip shot121–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:42Lonzo Ball makes 27-foot three pointerDEN 114 – 121 CHI · CHI 71% → 87% +16CHI 71% → 87%+16 pts
- Q42:22Jamal Murray makes 19-foot pullup jump shotDEN 118 – 121 CHI · DEN 16% → 29% +14DEN 16% → 29%+14 pts
- Q42:05Zach LaVine makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)DEN 118 – 124 CHI · CHI 72% → 91% +19CHI 72% → 91%+19 pts
- Q41:25Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 121 – 124 CHI · DEN 5% → 22% +17DEN 5% → 22%+17 pts
- Q41:10Zach LaVine makes 29-foot three point jumperDEN 121 – 127 CHI · CHI 81% → 97% +16CHI 81% → 97%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML DEN -400 / CHI +315
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 78.7%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -332
- CHI +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 128.5 – 119.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +2 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +227 Elo | DEN 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 116.47th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 120.029th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −3.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 110.716th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.3 | Pace | 105.03rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 8–1626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–22 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–17 | 21–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.