Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints19
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists3
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–82
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–82
- Q419.0Justin Champagnie makes two point shot106–82
- Q426.0Orlando Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2106–80
- Q426.0Orlando Robinson makes free throw 1 of 2105–80
- Q426.0Anthony Gill shooting foul104–80
- Q428.0Orlando Robinson offensive rebound104–80
- Q429.2Garrett Temple misses 23-foot three point jumper104–80
- Q443.1Tristan Vukcevic makes 5-foot layup (Johnny Davis assists)104–80
- Q455.0Ja'Kobe Walter makes 3-foot layup (Jamal Shead assists)104–78
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:47RJ Barrett makes driving layup (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 2 – 0 WSH · TOR 67% → 70% +4TOR 67% → 70%+4 pts
- Q19:51Jakob Poeltl makes two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)TOR 4 – 0 WSH · TOR 70% → 74% +4TOR 70% → 74%+4 pts
- Q19:17Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 7 – 0 WSH · TOR 74% → 79% +5TOR 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q18:18Ochai Agbaji makes three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)TOR 12 – 0 WSH · TOR 82% → 86% +4TOR 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q210:32Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)TOR 34 – 20 WSH · TOR 85% → 89% +4TOR 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -5.5
- ML TOR -225 / WSH +190
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -7.5
- TOR 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 76.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -201
- WSH +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 117.0 – 111.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1271 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −56 | TOR: Missing Kelly Olynyk −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +205 Elo | TOR 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 107.827th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 122.330th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.8 | Margin | −14.530th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 103.830th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 117.830th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–19 | Road vs home | 5–1729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+17 Elo- Kelly Olynyk right calf strain−6 Elo
Wizards
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–18 | 18–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 18–27 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.