Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints16
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Jordan PooleRebounds6
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints23
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists9
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–130
- Q41.0Justin Champagnie defensive rebound108–130
- Q43.0Brandon Williams misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot108–130
- Q48.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Johnny Davis assists)108–130
- Q411.2Brandon Williams personal take foul105–130
- Q416.0shot clock turnover105–130
- Q439.1Justin Champagnie makes tip shot105–130
- Q439.1Justin Champagnie offensive rebound103–130
- Q440.0Johnny Davis misses driving layup103–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:17Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)WSH 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 88% → 91% +3DAL 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q110:34Spencer Dinwiddie makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 0 – 6 DAL · DAL 91% → 93% +2DAL 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q110:12Alex Sarr makes alley oop layup (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 2 – 6 DAL · WSH 7% → 9% +2WSH 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q19:50Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three pointerWSH 2 – 9 DAL · DAL 91% → 94% +2DAL 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q16:42Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)WSH 5 – 18 DAL · DAL 95% → 97% +1DAL 95% → 97%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -13.5
- ML WSH +700 / DAL -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -14
- DAL 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 90.4%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -738
- WSH +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.0 – 122.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1274 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | −25 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +390 Elo | DAL 90.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 86.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 87.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 115.111th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 112.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.4 | Margin | +2.910th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.7 | Offense rating | 113.79th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 110.811th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–20 | Road vs home | 13–1015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–26 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 18–26 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.