Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- LeBron JamesRebounds8
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints20
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–97
- Q422.0Trey Jemison III defensive rebound122–97
- Q424.1Terance Mann misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot122–97
- Q438.1Armel Traore makes 1-foot layup (Shake Milton assists)122–97
- Q442.1Bones Hyland bad pass (Trey Jemison III steals)120–97
- Q455.1Shake Milton bad pass (Bones Hyland steals)120–97
- Q41:02Bones Hyland makes two point shot (Terance Mann assists)120–97
- Q41:02Bronny James bad pass (Terance Mann steals)120–95
- Q41:20Bones Hyland makes free throw 2 of 2120–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:48Gabe Vincent makes 27-foot three point shot (Jaxson Hayes assists)LAL 31 – 23 LAC · LAL 37% → 44% +7LAL 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q137.1LeBron James makes 26-foot three pointer (Jaxson Hayes assists)LAL 42 – 27 LAC · LAL 55% → 62% +7LAL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q11.1LeBron James makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 45 – 27 LAC · LAL 63% → 69% +7LAL 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q210:30Dalton Knecht makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 50 – 31 LAC · LAL 66% → 73% +6LAL 66% → 73%+6 pts
- Q37:11Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three pointer (LeBron James assists)LAL 82 – 66 LAC · LAL 74% → 81% +7LAL 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML LAL +280 / LAC -360
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 67.4%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -297
- LAL +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 107.0 – 115.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | +41 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +126 Elo | LAC 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 110.323rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 107.23rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 110.319th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 107.24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 17–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–22 | 30–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 16–7 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–2 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.