Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints31
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- LeBron JamesRebounds8
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints43
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Assists5
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–118
- Q410.1Ricky Council IV defensive rebound104–118
- Q413.1Bronny James misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot104–118
- Q424.1Justin Edwards makes 1-foot two point shot104–118
- Q446.0Justin Edwards defensive rebound104–116
- Q446.2Dalton Knecht misses two point shot104–116
- Q41:03Christian Koloko defensive rebound104–116
- Q41:03Adem Bona misses tip shot104–116
- Q41:03Adem Bona offensive rebound104–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:57Dalton Knecht makes 23-foot three point jumper (Christian Koloko assists)LAL 41 – 46 PHI · LAL 39% → 47% +8LAL 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q25:15Tyrese Maxey makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 43 – 51 PHI · PHI 53% → 61% +8PHI 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q24:01Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)LAL 49 – 54 PHI · LAL 38% → 46% +8LAL 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q22:41Eric Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)LAL 53 – 61 PHI · PHI 54% → 63% +8PHI 54% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:06Ricky Council IV makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)LAL 53 – 64 PHI · PHI 63% → 71% +8PHI 63% → 71%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML LAL -190 / PHI +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 66.3%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- LAL -167
- PHI +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.5 – 107.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +13 | −73 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +117 Elo | LAL 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 108.125th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 112.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −4.323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 108.923rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 113.221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 7–1325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−73 Elo- Andre Drummond left toe−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–21 | 16–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 10–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–24 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.