Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints24
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Jaxson HayesRebounds10
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints19
- Bub CarringtonAssists6
- Jordan PooleRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–95
- Q46.0Bronny James makes free throw 2 of 2134–95
- Q46.0Bronny James makes free throw 1 of 2133–95
- Q46.0Jared Butler shooting foul132–95
- Q420.0Johnny Davis kicked ball violation132–95
- Q435.1Christian Koloko defensive rebound132–95
- Q439.0Johnny Davis misses 24-foot three point shot132–95
- Q442.1Anthony Gill defensive rebound132–95
- Q446.1Bronny James misses two point shot132–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:13Kyle Kuzma makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)LAL 8 – 7 WSH · WSH 19% → 24% +5WSH 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:53Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 11 – 7 WSH · LAL 76% → 81% +5LAL 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q18:42Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)LAL 11 – 10 WSH · WSH 19% → 24% +5WSH 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q17:31Kyshawn George makes 23-foot three point shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)LAL 11 – 13 WSH · WSH 24% → 29% +5WSH 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q17:11Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 14 – 13 WSH · LAL 71% → 76% +5LAL 71% → 76%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -8.5
- ML LAL -370 / WSH +290
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9
- LAL 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 80.4%, market 75.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -307
- WSH +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.5 – 108.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1264 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −70 | −48 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +245 Elo | LAL 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 81.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 75.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 107.227th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 122.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −14.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 103.330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 117.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 5–1829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–22 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | — |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 18–28 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.