Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints33
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- LeBron JamesRebounds11
Knicks- Josh HartPoints26
- Josh HartAssists11
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–112
- Q413.0Ariel Hukporti makes dunk (Tyler Kolek assists)128–112
- Q420.1Bronny James out of bounds bad pass turnover128–110
- Q436.1Trey Jemison III defensive rebound128–110
- Q438.2Jacob Toppin misses driving layup128–110
- Q451.0Bronny James makes 2-foot two point shot128–110
- Q41:02Tyler Kolek out of bounds bad pass turnover126–110
- Q41:18Jacob Toppin defensive rebound126–110
- Q41:21Dalton Knecht misses 28-foot three point jumper126–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:45LeBron James makes 23-foot three point shot (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 86 – 79 NY · LAL 46% → 57% +11LAL 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q31:33Gabe Vincent makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)LAL 89 – 83 NY · LAL 44% → 55% +12LAL 44% → 55%+12 pts
- Q30.1Josh Hart makes 31-foot three point shot (Precious Achiuwa assists)LAL 91 – 89 NY · NY 46% → 59% +12NY 46% → 59%+12 pts
- Q411:41Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 94 – 89 NY · LAL 42% → 54% +13LAL 42% → 54%+13 pts
- Q47:21Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)LAL 109 – 102 NY · NY 16% → 27% +12NY 16% → 27%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -10.5
- ML LAL +380 / NY -550
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -8.5
- NY 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NY: Elo 79.5%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -406
- LAL +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 107.5 – 118.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −87 | +34 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +236 Elo | NY 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 78.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 117.94th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 110.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +7.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 119.02nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–22 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–1 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.