Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints33
- Jamal MurrayAssists6
- Russell WestbrookRebounds14
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints30
- Jalen BrunsonAssists15
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–122
- Q48.1shot clock turnover112–122
- Q432.1Jamal Murray personal take foul112–122
- Q436.0Jamal Murray makes 1-foot two point shot112–122
- Q447.1Josh Hart makes 1-foot layup (Jalen Brunson assists)110–122
- Q41:03Knicks defensive team rebound110–120
- Q41:03Russell Westbrook misses free throw 2 of 2110–120
- Q41:03Christian Braun enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.110–120
- Q41:03Russell Westbrook makes free throw 1 of 2110–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:03Christian Braun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 80 – 76 NY · DEN 50% → 60% +11DEN 50% → 60%+11 pts
- Q33:48OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)DEN 80 – 79 NY · NY 39% → 50% +11NY 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q32:24Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)DEN 82 – 84 NY · NY 50% → 61% +11NY 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q49:42Miles McBride makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)DEN 93 – 100 NY · NY 70% → 81% +11NY 70% → 81%+11 pts
- Q45:38Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 104 – 108 NY · DEN 13% → 25% +12DEN 13% → 25%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML DEN +120 / NY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- NY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NY: Elo 56.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NY -130
- DEN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.0 – 121.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +29 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +43 Elo | NY 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 117.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +7.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 118.92nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 16–88th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 22–20 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 29–17 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–2 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.