Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Thomas BryantRebounds8
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints45
- Austin ReavesAssists7
- Jaxson HayesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–124
- Q44.1Austin Reaves defensive rebound117–124
- Q48.1Andrew Nembhard misses 24-foot three point jumper117–124
- Q413.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2117–124
- Q413.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2117–123
- Q413.1Ben Sheppard personal take foul117–122
- Q414.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 1-foot driving dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)117–122
- Q419.1Rui Hachimura makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Shake Milton assists)115–122
- Q426.1Aaron Nesmith vs. Rui Hachimura (Jordan Goodwin gains possession)115–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:51Obi Toppin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 12 – 19 LAL · IND 40% → 47% +6IND 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q39:22Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 62 – 70 LAL · IND 26% → 34% +8IND 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q37:00Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)IND 68 – 77 LAL · LAL 62% → 71% +9LAL 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q411:34Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)IND 86 – 97 LAL · LAL 76% → 84% +9LAL 76% → 84%+9 pts
- Q410:35Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three pointer (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)IND 88 – 100 LAL · LAL 80% → 88% +8LAL 80% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML IND -185 / LAL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- IND: Elo 58.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -166
- LAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 117.5 – 113.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −121 | IND: Usual rotation · LAL: Missing Christian Wood −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +61 Elo | IND 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 112.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.614th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 113.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 112.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 17–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−121 Elo- Christian Wood left knee surgery−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–25 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–2 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.