Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints37
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints42
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–120
- Q410.2Lakers defensive team rebound112–120
- Q412.1Stephen Curry misses 28-foot three point jumper112–120
- Q418.2Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2112–120
- Q418.2Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2112–119
- Q418.2Buddy Hield personal take foul112–118
- Q420.0Stephen Curry makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)112–118
- Q427.0Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound110–118
- Q428.1Rui Hachimura misses free throw 2 of 2110–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:46Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jackson Rowe assists)GS 75 – 81 LAL · GS 16% → 24% +8GS 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q49:48Moses Moody makes three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 87 – 93 LAL · GS 12% → 20% +8GS 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q47:16Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)GS 91 – 101 LAL · LAL 85% → 93% +7LAL 85% → 93%+7 pts
- Q44:47Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerGS 101 – 107 LAL · GS 6% → 14% +8GS 6% → 14%+8 pts
- Q43:40Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 104 – 109 LAL · GS 6% → 15% +10GS 6% → 15%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML GS +150 / LAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 68.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAL -161
- GS +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 110.5 – 115.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | −46 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +131 Elo | LAL 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 112.417th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 113.011th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 16–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–25 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–3 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.