Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints32
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Kevon LooneyRebounds10
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints31
- Isaiah CollierAssists11
- Walker KesslerRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–131
- Q47.0Draymond Green bad pass (Keyonte George steals)128–131
- Q49.0John Collins makes free throw 2 of 2128–131
- Q49.0Walker Kessler enters the game for Svi Mykhailiuk128–130
- Q49.0John Collins makes free throw 1 of 2128–130
- Q49.0Buddy Hield enters the game for Gary Payton II128–129
- Q49.0Gary Payton II personal foul128–129
- Q49.1Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Walker Kessler128–129
- Q49.1Jazz Full timeout128–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:12Jordan Clarkson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)GS 124 – 122 UTAH · UTAH 4% → 23% +19UTAH 4% → 23%+19 pts
- Q426.1Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point shot (Isaiah Collier assists)GS 126 – 127 UTAH · UTAH 13% → 69% +56UTAH 13% → 69%+56 pts
- Q410.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2GS 126 – 128 UTAH · UTAH 80% → 96% +16UTAH 80% → 96%+16 pts
- Q49.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2GS 128 – 129 UTAH · GS 3% → 18% +15GS 3% → 18%+15 pts
- Q49.0John Collins makes free throw 1 of 2GS 128 – 130 UTAH · UTAH 82% → 97% +15UTAH 82% → 97%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML GS -250 / UTAH +200
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- GS: Elo 63.7%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -214
- UTAH +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.5 – 108.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −38 | GS: Missing Trayce Jackson-Davis −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +98 Elo | GS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.2 | Points scored | 111.220th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 118.427th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −7.228th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 109.423rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 116.529th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 4–1830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+2 Elo- Trayce Jackson-Davis sore right knee−5 Elo
Jazz
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–24 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 6–0 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.