Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints26
- Wendell Carter Jr.Assists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds14
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints25
- Kevon LooneyAssists6
- Kevon LooneyRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–104
- Q47.2Gary Payton II defensive rebound99–104
- Q410.0Cole Anthony misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot99–104
- Q413.2Magic Full timeout99–104
- Q413.2Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 299–104
- Q413.2Gary Payton II enters the game for Kevon Looney99–103
- Q413.2Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 299–103
- Q413.2Kentavious Caldwell-Pope personal take foul99–102
- Q417.0Cole Anthony makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot99–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:35Andrew Wiggins makes 9-foot two point shotORL 92 – 92 GS · GS 38% → 53% +15GS 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q42:53Kevon Looney makes tip shotORL 92 – 94 GS · GS 53% → 69% +16GS 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q41:44Draymond Green makes 10-foot two point shot (Stephen Curry assists)ORL 92 – 96 GS · GS 72% → 87% +15GS 72% → 87%+15 pts
- Q41:22Franz Wagner makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotORL 94 – 96 GS · ORL 10% → 25% +15ORL 10% → 25%+15 pts
- Q41:07Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)ORL 94 – 99 GS · GS 76% → 96% +19GS 76% → 96%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML ORL +140 / GS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- GS: Elo 61.0%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -151
- ORL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.0 – 106.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −20 | ORL: Usual rotation · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +78 Elo | GS 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.7 | Points scored | 111.318th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Points allowed | 111.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 110.220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 110.59th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 100.718th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–25 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–12 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–30 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 0–2 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.