Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points32
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Assists4
- Zach EdeyRebounds15
Raptors- Ja'Kobe WalterPoints14
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Gradey DickRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–107
- Q421.1shot clock turnover138–107
- Q434.1Jay Huff offensive rebound138–107
- Q438.0GG Jackson misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot138–107
- Q446.1John Konchar defensive rebound138–107
- Q448.1Gradey Dick misses 10-foot pullup jump shot138–107
- Q41:03GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 1138–107
- Q41:03Ja'Kobe Walter shooting foul137–107
- Q41:03GG Jackson makes finger roll layup137–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:49Jamison Battle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)MEM 29 – 37 TOR · TOR 35% → 42% +7TOR 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q24:20Santi Aldama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 46 – 46 TOR · MEM 67% → 74% +7MEM 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q22:18Ja'Kobe Walter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)MEM 50 – 53 TOR · TOR 27% → 34% +7TOR 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q21:15Jamal Shead makes 23-foot three point shot (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)MEM 50 – 59 TOR · TOR 43% → 52% +9TOR 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q36:58Ja Morant makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 73 – 69 TOR · MEM 73% → 80% +8MEM 73% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -9.5
- ML MEM -480 / TOR +370
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -7.5
- MEM 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MEM: Elo 77.1%, market 79.5%
- Fair odds
- MEM -389
- TOR +389 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 122.5 – 113.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | −41 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +211 Elo | MEM 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 79.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.5 | Points scored | 111.318th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 116.425th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.9 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 109.224th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 114.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 12–1523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–17 | 30–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–11 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–17 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.