New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints28
- Josh HartAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds20
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Jamal SheadAssists9
- Kelly OlynykRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–115
- Q40.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound121–115
- Q43.1Ja'Kobe Walter misses 23-foot three point jumper121–115
- Q45.0Jonathan Mogbo offensive rebound121–115
- Q48.1Gradey Dick misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot121–115
- Q413.1Kelly Olynyk offensive rebound121–115
- Q416.1Scottie Barnes misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot121–115
- Q421.1Kelly Olynyk offensive rebound121–115
- Q424.0Scottie Barnes misses 25-foot three point jumper121–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:41Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)NY 110 – 107 TOR · TOR 13% → 26% +14TOR 13% → 26%+14 pts
- Q43:17Jamal Shead makes driving layupNY 112 – 111 TOR · TOR 24% → 38% +14TOR 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q42:01Josh Hart makes 12-foot two point shotNY 114 – 111 TOR · NY 63% → 80% +17NY 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q41:31Josh Hart makes two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 116 – 111 TOR · NY 83% → 94% +11NY 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q41:23Jonathan Mogbo makes alley oop dunk shot (Jamal Shead assists)NY 116 – 113 TOR · TOR 5% → 16% +11TOR 5% → 16%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -220 / TOR +185
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NY: Elo 67.5%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -196
- TOR +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.5 – 111.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −12 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +127 Elo | NY 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 111.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 116.324th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.6 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 109.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.49th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–8 | Road vs home | 12–1423rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–25 | 30–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 23–22 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–21 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 7–0 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.