Houston Rockets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints25
- Amen ThompsonAssists11
- Steven AdamsRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints42
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–124
- Q40.2Josh Hart defensive rebound118–124
- Q42.2Amen Thompson misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot118–124
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2118–124
- Q46.0Tari Eason enters the game for Jalen Green118–123
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2118–123
- Q46.0Amen Thompson personal take foul118–122
- Q47.1Aaron Holiday makes driving layup (Amen Thompson assists)118–122
- Q410.0Aaron Holiday enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate116–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:57Mikal Bridges makes 8-foot two point shotHOU 110 – 111 NY · NY 47% → 64% +16NY 47% → 64%+16 pts
- Q41:59Jalen Brunson makes two point shotHOU 112 – 113 NY · NY 44% → 64% +20NY 44% → 64%+20 pts
- Q41:49Amen Thompson makes driving dunkHOU 114 – 113 NY · HOU 35% → 56% +21HOU 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q41:38Jalen Brunson makes 1-foot two point shotHOU 114 – 115 NY · NY 43% → 65% +22NY 43% → 65%+22 pts
- Q41:00Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 114 – 118 NY · NY 67% → 94% +27NY 67% → 94%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML HOU +230 / NY -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NY: Elo 66.6%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -244
- HOU +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 116.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +22 | HOU: Missing Alperen Sengun −46, Fred VanVleet −13, Jock Landale −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +120 Elo | NY 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 117.74th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 111.28th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +6.65th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 118.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 112.215th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–7 | Road vs home | 17–98th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−23 Elo- Alperen Sengun left calf contusion−46 Elo
- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−13 Elo
- Jock Landale not with team−3 Elo
Knicks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–20 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.