Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Ziaire WilliamsPoints21
- Keon JohnsonAssists5
- Keon JohnsonRebounds9
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints29
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–98
- Q41.0Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)110–98
- Q43.0Rockets offensive team rebound110–95
- Q43.1Keon Johnson blocks Jalen Green 's 4-foot driving layup110–95
- Q412.2Ziaire Williams makes free throw 2 of 2110–95
- Q412.2Ziaire Williams makes free throw 1 of 2109–95
- Q412.2Amen Thompson personal foul108–95
- Q415.2Amen Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Dillon Brooks assists)108–95
- Q419.1Nic Claxton makes 2-foot dunk (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)108–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:17Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)BKN 45 – 38 HOU · HOU 54% → 62% +8HOU 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q210.0D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three pointer (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 53 – 38 HOU · BKN 55% → 63% +9BKN 55% → 63%+9 pts
- Q38:44Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 60 – 46 HOU · BKN 57% → 66% +9BKN 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q38:06Keon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)BKN 63 – 48 HOU · BKN 61% → 70% +9BKN 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q37:08Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 66 – 51 HOU · HOU 21% → 29% +8HOU 21% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -12.5
- ML BKN +575 / HOU -850
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9
- HOU 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 81.3%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -604
- BKN +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 98.5 – 111.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −4 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Alperen Sengun −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +256 Elo | HOU 81.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 83.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 83.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 114.013th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 108.45th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +5.66th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 27th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 106.62nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 15–76th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−29 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−21 Elo
Rockets
−4 Elo- Alperen Sengun left calf contusion−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–23 | 28–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 19–14 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–26 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.