Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Obi ToppinPoints31
- T.J. McConnellAssists9
- Thomas BryantRebounds11
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints42
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists8
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game134–130
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime134–130
- OT1.2Bub Carrington bad pass (Pascal Siakam steals)134–130
- OT5.1Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2134–130
- OT5.1Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2133–130
- OT5.1Alex Sarr personal foul132–130
- OT5.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound132–130
- OT6.1Jordan Poole misses two point shot132–130
- OT14.0Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2132–130
- OT14.0Bub Carrington enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly131–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:13Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerIND 110 – 110 WSH · IND 42% → 61% +19IND 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q42:13Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 118 – 115 WSH · IND 57% → 82% +25IND 57% → 82%+25 pts
- Q459.0Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 118 – 118 WSH · WSH 11% → 45% +34WSH 11% → 45%+34 pts
- Q423.1Jordan Poole makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)IND 118 – 120 WSH · WSH 47% → 86% +39WSH 47% → 86%+39 pts
- Q414.2Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2IND 120 – 120 WSH · IND 25% → 52% +28IND 25% → 52%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- IND -9.5
- ML IND -500 / WSH +360
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8
- IND 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- IND: Elo 78.1%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -383
- WSH +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 126.0 – 116.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1293 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | −30 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +220 Elo | IND 78.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 108.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 121.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −13.630th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 104.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 117.630th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 103.34th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 5–2230th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–27 | 23–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | — |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.