San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints31
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Wizards- Tristan VukcevicPoints18
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists5
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–121
- Q411.0shot clock turnover131–121
- Q432.1Chris Paul defensive rebound131–121
- Q436.1Victor Wembanyama blocks Corey Kispert 's 22-foot three point jumper131–121
- Q438.0Corey Kispert enters the game for Bub Carrington131–121
- Q438.0Richaun Holmes enters the game for Malcolm Brogdon131–121
- Q438.0Wizards Full timeout131–121
- Q438.0Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2131–121
- Q438.0Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2130–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:29Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 75 – 73 WSH · SA 70% → 78% +8SA 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q38:08Bilal Coulibaly makes three pointer (Kyshawn George assists)SA 75 – 76 WSH · WSH 22% → 30% +8WSH 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q35:57Harrison Barnes makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 80 – 80 WSH · SA 63% → 72% +9SA 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q33:54De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 88 – 84 WSH · SA 74% → 82% +8SA 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q49:40Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 105 – 100 WSH · SA 74% → 84% +10SA 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -10.5
- ML SA -700 / WSH +450
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- SA: Elo 74.7%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -481
- WSH +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 124.0 – 113.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1297 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | −21 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +188 Elo | SA 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 107.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 121.630th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −13.730th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 104.230th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 117.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 103.34th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–15 | Road vs home | 5–2130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–26 | 22–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | — |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.