Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Trae YoungAssists14
- Dyson DanielsRebounds9
Wizards- Bub CarringtonPoints23
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Richaun HolmesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–111
- Q417.1shot clock turnover125–111
- Q439.0Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound125–111
- Q441.0Jaylen Martin misses 3-foot tip shot125–111
- Q442.0Jaylen Martin offensive rebound125–111
- Q443.1Justin Champagnie misses two point shot125–111
- Q445.1Justin Champagnie offensive rebound125–111
- Q447.1Jaylen Martin misses two point shot125–111
- Q458.2Jaylen Martin defensive rebound125–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:38Vit Krejci makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 37 – 37 WSH · ATL 59% → 66% +7ATL 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q27:29Larry Nance Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 40 – 39 WSH · ATL 61% → 68% +7ATL 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q25:30Corey Kispert makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)ATL 42 – 46 WSH · WSH 37% → 45% +8WSH 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q23:22Vit Krejci makes 23-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 49 – 52 WSH · ATL 49% → 57% +8ATL 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q22:32Trae Young makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 52 – 54 WSH · ATL 51% → 59% +8ATL 51% → 59%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -6.5
- ML ATL -260 / WSH +215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -227
- WSH +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 122.5 – 116.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1307 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | +11 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +75 Elo | ATL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 107.827th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 121.530th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.9 | Margin | −13.730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 104.230th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 117.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 5–2030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–28 | 22–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | — |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders | 31–21 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–3 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.