Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints26
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Bobby PortisRebounds15
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints24
- Dyson DanielsAssists10
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–115
- Q42.1Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound110–115
- Q42.1Damian Lillard misses 22-foot three point shot110–115
- Q43.1Damian Lillard offensive rebound110–115
- Q48.1Kyle Kuzma misses 25-foot three point jumper110–115
- Q415.1Brook Lopez enters the game for Andre Jackson Jr.110–115
- Q415.1Kyle Kuzma enters the game for AJ Green110–115
- Q415.1Damian Lillard enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.110–115
- Q415.1Bucks Full timeout110–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:01Keaton Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)MIL 94 – 101 ATL · ATL 69% → 82% +13ATL 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q46:32Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)MIL 96 – 104 ATL · ATL 74% → 86% +12ATL 74% → 86%+12 pts
- Q43:34Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 105 – 106 ATL · MIL 23% → 44% +21MIL 23% → 44%+21 pts
- Q42:25Onyeka Okongwu makes layup (Dyson Daniels assists)MIL 105 – 110 ATL · ATL 75% → 87% +12ATL 75% → 87%+12 pts
- Q41:32Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 108 – 112 ATL · MIL 2% → 13% +11MIL 2% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -2.5
- ML MIL -140 / ATL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- MIL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 45.0%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -125
- ATL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 120.5 – 118.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −97 | −15 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −18 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 116.18th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 119.228th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −3.121st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 109.723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.7 | Pace | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 11–1222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−15 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–27 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 31–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.