Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints29
- Damian LillardAssists12
- Bobby PortisRebounds17
Hornets- Nick Smith Jr.Points23
- Miles BridgesAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–102
- Q422.0Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2112–102
- Q422.0Hornets offensive team rebound112–101
- Q422.0Nick Smith Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2112–101
- Q422.0MarJon Beauchamp shooting foul112–101
- Q427.0shot clock turnover112–101
- Q427.0MarJon Beauchamp offensive rebound112–101
- Q429.0Tidjane Salaun blocks Ryan Rollins 's 1-foot driving layup112–101
- Q452.0Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot112–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)MIL 3 – 5 CHA · CHA 18% → 23% +4CHA 18% → 23%+4 pts
- Q110:36Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 5 – 8 CHA · CHA 20% → 24% +5CHA 20% → 24%+5 pts
- Q110:22Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 8 – 8 CHA · MIL 76% → 80% +5MIL 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q18:55Damian Lillard makes 33-foot three pointerMIL 13 – 12 CHA · MIL 77% → 81% +5MIL 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q410:44Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 89 – 79 CHA · MIL 88% → 93% +5MIL 88% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML MIL -525 / CHA +400
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −23.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.2%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -420
- CHA +420 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.5 – 107.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1315 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −98 | +5 | MIL: Missing Giannis Antetokounmpo −104 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +51 Elo | MIL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 107.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 112.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −5.226th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 106.528th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–14 | Road vs home | 8–1927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−98 Elo- Giannis Antetokounmpo left calf tightness−104 Elo
Hornets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–27 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 18–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–1 CHA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.