Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists17
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- KJ SimpsonAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–104
- Q41.2Mark Williams offensive rebound107–104
- Q43.1Nick Smith Jr. misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot107–104
- Q48.0Seth Curry enters the game for KJ Simpson107–104
- Q48.0Hornets Full timeout107–104
- Q48.0Jamal Murray makes two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)107–104
- Q412.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound105–104
- Q414.0Miles Bridges misses driving floating jump shot105–104
- Q418.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2105–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:25Miles Bridges makes 7-foot two point shotDEN 100 – 102 CHA · CHA 43% → 67% +24CHA 43% → 67%+24 pts
- Q451.1Miles Bridges makes 13-foot two point shotDEN 100 – 104 CHA · CHA 74% → 92% +18CHA 74% → 92%+18 pts
- Q441.2Nikola Jokic makes two point shotDEN 102 – 104 CHA · DEN 5% → 23% +17DEN 5% → 23%+17 pts
- Q418.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 104 – 104 CHA · DEN 28% → 53% +25DEN 28% → 53%+25 pts
- Q418.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 105 – 104 CHA · DEN 53% → 77% +24DEN 53% → 77%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -12.5
- ML DEN -800 / CHA +550
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 82.5%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -578
- CHA +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.5 – 107.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1333 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | +1 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +269 Elo | DEN 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 85.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 106.928th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 106.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.2 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 8–1726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–25 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–18 | 17–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.