Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints31
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints42
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–134
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound137–134
- Q40.0Guerschon Yabusele misses 43-foot three point pullup jump shot137–134
- Q43.1Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2137–134
- Q43.1Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2136–134
- Q43.1Justin Edwards personal take foul135–134
- Q43.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes tip shot135–134
- Q44.0Kelly Oubre Jr. offensive rebound135–132
- Q44.0Guerschon Yabusele misses 1-foot two point shot135–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:11Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 125 – 125 PHI · DEN 28% → 56% +28DEN 28% → 56%+28 pts
- Q41:47Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Justin Edwards assists)DEN 125 – 128 PHI · PHI 44% → 75% +30PHI 44% → 75%+30 pts
- Q459.1Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot two point shotDEN 129 – 128 PHI · DEN 40% → 68% +28DEN 40% → 68%+28 pts
- Q453.1Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shotDEN 130 – 130 PHI · PHI 19% → 46% +27PHI 19% → 46%+27 pts
- Q439.1Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 133 – 130 PHI · DEN 53% → 92% +39DEN 53% → 92%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML DEN -425 / PHI +320
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 72.0%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -340
- PHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 122.0 – 112.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −62 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +164 Elo | DEN 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 108.525th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −3.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 109.422nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 112.921st of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.3 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 9–1324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−62 Elo- Andre Drummond left toe−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–24 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–18 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.