Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints21
- Domantas SabonisAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Adem BonaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–117
- Q422.1Kyle Lowry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)104–117
- Q444.176ers defensive team rebound104–114
- Q447.1DeMar DeRozan misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot104–114
- Q449.0DeMar DeRozan offensive rebound104–114
- Q452.1Malik Monk misses 26-foot three point jumper104–114
- Q455.1Kings Full timeout104–114
- Q455.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2104–114
- Q455.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2104–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q328.1Reggie Jackson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)SAC 87 – 89 PHI · PHI 33% → 45% +12PHI 33% → 45%+12 pts
- Q410:07Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 89 – 94 PHI · PHI 52% → 61% +9PHI 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q48:25DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 92 – 98 PHI · SAC 20% → 32% +12SAC 20% → 32%+12 pts
- Q46:49Kyle Lowry makes 29-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)SAC 92 – 101 PHI · PHI 72% → 84% +12PHI 72% → 84%+12 pts
- Q45:51Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Kyle Lowry assists)SAC 94 – 104 PHI · PHI 79% → 90% +10PHI 79% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -8.5
- ML SAC -340 / PHI +270
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6
- SAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 72.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -286
- PHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 121.0 – 112.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +35 | −69 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +172 Elo | SAC 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 108.325th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 112.214th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −3.923rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 109.122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 113.020th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 8–1324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−69 Elo- Andre Drummond left toe−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–27 | 17–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.