Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints26
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds17
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- Miles BridgesAssists10
- Mark WilliamsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–114
- Q420.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound124–114
- Q424.1Miles Bridges misses running pullup jump shot124–114
- Q429.1Mark Williams defensive rebound124–114
- Q431.1Malcolm Brogdon misses free throw 2 of 2124–114
- Q431.1Malcolm Brogdon makes free throw 1 of 2124–114
- Q431.1Mark Williams personal take foul123–114
- Q431.1Malcolm Brogdon defensive rebound123–114
- Q433.1Miles Bridges misses 22-foot three point jumper123–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:08Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)WSH 39 – 35 CHA · WSH 43% → 50% +7WSH 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q28:34Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)WSH 42 – 37 CHA · WSH 45% → 53% +8WSH 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q33:26Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Seth Curry assists)WSH 88 – 78 CHA · CHA 15% → 23% +7CHA 15% → 23%+7 pts
- Q32:36Vasilije Micic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)WSH 88 – 81 CHA · CHA 22% → 31% +9CHA 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q31:59Vasilije Micic makes 27-foot three pointerWSH 91 – 84 CHA · CHA 21% → 30% +9CHA 21% → 30%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -4.5
- ML WSH +150 / CHA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -5.5
- CHA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- CHA: Elo 70.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CHA -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 106.0 – 110.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1267 | 1332 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +4 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +149 Elo | CHA 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 106.828th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.8 | Points allowed | 111.912th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.9 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.1 | Offense rating | 106.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 111.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–21 | Road vs home | 8–1826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–29 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 19–29 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25 | 17–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–2 CHA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.