Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints31
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints23
- Rob DillinghamAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–103
- Q40.1Corey Kispert defensive rebound105–103
- Q42.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot105–103
- Q411.1Kyle Kuzma bad pass (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)105–103
- Q414.2Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Kyshawn George105–103
- Q415.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Richaun Holmes105–103
- Q415.1Kyshawn George enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas105–103
- Q415.1Jordan Poole enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly105–103
- Q415.1Wizards Full timeout105–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:32Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)WSH 99 – 96 MIN · MIN 19% → 38% +19MIN 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q41:48Rudy Gobert makes two point shotWSH 99 – 98 MIN · MIN 27% → 47% +20MIN 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q41:23Kyle Kuzma makes driving layupWSH 101 – 98 MIN · WSH 56% → 78% +22WSH 56% → 78%+22 pts
- Q41:10Rudy Gobert makes 3-foot layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)WSH 101 – 100 MIN · MIN 20% → 43% +23MIN 20% → 43%+23 pts
- Q455.2Kyle Kuzma makes 10-foot two point shotWSH 103 – 100 MIN · WSH 60% → 84% +24WSH 60% → 84%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML WSH +475 / MIN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -13
- MIN 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 88.9%, market 83.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -498
- WSH +498 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 103.0 – 114.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1255 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | −65 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +361 Elo | MIN 88.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 84.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 83.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 111.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 107.94th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−15.2 | Margin | +3.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.1 | Offense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 108.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–21 | Road vs home | 12–1015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–29 | 20–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 18–29 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.