Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints16
- AJ JohnsonAssists4
- Tyler SmithRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–125
- Q418.0Dillon Jones defensive rebound96–125
- Q421.2Tyler Smith misses 21-foot jumper96–125
- Q442.1Chris Livingston defensive rebound96–125
- Q446.0Adam Flagler misses 24-foot three point jumper96–125
- Q449.1AJ Johnson lost ball turnover (Adam Flagler steals)96–125
- Q450.1AJ Johnson defensive rebound96–125
- Q451.0Alex Ducas misses 2-foot tip shot96–125
- Q451.0Alex Ducas offensive rebound96–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Aaron Wiggins makes 3-foot two point shotMIL 0 – 2 OKC · OKC 90% → 92% +2OKC 90% → 92%+2 pts
- Q111:21Chris Livingston makes 2-foot layup (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 2 – 2 OKC · MIL 8% → 10% +2MIL 8% → 10%+2 pts
- Q111:11Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIL 2 – 5 OKC · OKC 90% → 93% +2OKC 90% → 93%+2 pts
- Q110:34Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving dunkMIL 4 – 7 OKC · OKC 91% → 93% +2OKC 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q15:19Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 17 – 24 OKC · MIL 4% → 5% +2MIL 4% → 5%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -17.5
- ML MIL +900 / OKC -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -17
- OKC 94%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 94.0%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -947
- MIL +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.5 – 122.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1715 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −192 | +13 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Jalen Williams −37 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +478 Elo | OKC 94.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 92.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 92.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 116.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 104.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +11.71st of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 114.56th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 102.91st of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–13 | Road vs home | 20–32nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−192 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+13 Elo- Jalen Williams right wrist sprain−37 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–26 | 30–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 29–17 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.