Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints20
- Malik MonkAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds7
Thunder- Aaron WigginsPoints41
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–144
- Q43.1Mason Jones bad pass (Jaylin Williams steals)110–144
- Q410.1shot clock turnover110–144
- Q433.1Jaylin Williams defensive rebound110–144
- Q436.1Keon Ellis misses 10-foot pullup jump shot110–144
- Q446.0Aaron Wiggins makes 2-foot layup (Jaylin Williams assists)110–144
- Q41:08Jaylin Williams defensive rebound110–142
- Q41:10Mason Jones misses free throw 2 of 2110–142
- Q41:10Mason Jones makes free throw 1 of 2110–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:44Keegan Murray makes 28-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 5 – 4 OKC · SAC 26% → 32% +5SAC 26% → 32%+5 pts
- Q19:08Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)SAC 9 – 9 OKC · OKC 64% → 70% +6OKC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q13:34Aaron Wiggins makes three point step back jumpshot (Jaylin Williams assists)SAC 21 – 30 OKC · OKC 80% → 84% +5OKC 80% → 84%+5 pts
- Q12.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 31 – 36 OKC · OKC 72% → 78% +6OKC 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q211:11Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)SAC 31 – 39 OKC · OKC 78% → 83% +5OKC 78% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML SAC +225 / OKC -275
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 73.1%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -238
- SAC +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.5 – 122.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1704 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | −4 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Jalen Williams −37 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +173 Elo | OKC 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 115.79th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 104.41st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +11.21st of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 114.08th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 102.91st of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 19–32nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−4 Elo- Jalen Williams right wrist sprain−37 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–28 | 29–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 28–17 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–3 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.