Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints34
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Larry Nance Jr.Rebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists14
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–130
- Q41.1Keaton Wallace enters the game for Trae Young132–130
- Q41.1Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Ausar Thompson132–130
- Q41.1Pistons Full timeout132–130
- Q41.1Trae Young makes 22-foot step back jumpshot132–130
- Q426.1Trae Young enters the game for Keaton Wallace130–130
- Q426.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.130–130
- Q426.1Hawks Full timeout130–130
- Q426.1Cade Cunningham makes 4-foot two point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)130–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:33Tobias Harris makes 11-foot jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)ATL 124 – 126 DET · DET 53% → 70% +17DET 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q42:19Trae Young makes 32-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 127 – 126 DET · ATL 29% → 57% +27ATL 29% → 57%+27 pts
- Q41:37Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot layup (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 129 – 128 DET · ATL 37% → 59% +22ATL 37% → 59%+22 pts
- Q426.1Cade Cunningham makes 4-foot two point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)ATL 130 – 130 DET · DET 14% → 51% +37DET 14% → 51%+37 pts
- Q41.1Trae Young makes 22-foot step back jumpshotATL 132 – 130 DET · ATL 50% → >99% +50ATL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML ATL +160 / DET -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- DET: Elo 63.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- ATL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.0 – 120.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −33 | +27 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +95 Elo | DET 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 112.316th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 113.317th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 110.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–28 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 29–20 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.